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skills/brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills/42-wanshuiyin-aris-skills-skills-codex-experiment-plan

42-wanshuiyin-aris-skills-skills-codex-experiment-plan

1
brycewang-stanford/Auto-Empirical-Research-Skills·Research·Audit pending·Snapshot 0cba91a3f0ed

Summary

This source did not publish a separate summary. Review SKILL.md before using the skill.

SKILL.md

Experiment Plan: Claim-Driven, Paper-Oriented Validation

Refine and concretize: $ARGUMENTS

Overview

Use this skill after the method is stable enough that the next question becomes: what exact experiments should we run, in what order, to defend the paper? If the user wants the full chain in one request, prefer /research-refine-pipeline.

The goal is not to generate a giant benchmark wishlist. The goal is to turn a proposal into a claim -> evidence -> run order roadmap that supports four things:

  1. the method actually solves the anchored problem
  2. the dominant contribution is real and focused
  3. the method is elegant enough that extra complexity is unnecessary
  4. any frontier-model-era component is genuinely useful, not decorative

Constants

  • OUTPUT_DIR = refine-logs/ — Default destination for experiment planning artifacts.
  • MAX_PRIMARY_CLAIMS = 2 — Prefer one dominant claim plus one supporting claim.
  • MAX_CORE_BLOCKS = 5 — Keep the must-run experimental story compact.
  • MAX_BASELINE_FAMILIES = 3 — Prefer a few strong baselines over many weak ones.
  • DEFAULT_SEEDS = 3 — Use 3 seeds when stochastic variance matters and budget allows.

Workflow

Phase 0: Load the Proposal Context

Read the most relevant existing files first if they exist:

  • refine-logs/FINAL_PROPOSAL.md
  • refine-logs/REVIEW_SUMMARY.md
  • refine-logs/REFINEMENT_REPORT.md

Extract:

  • Problem Anchor
  • Dominant contribution
  • Optional supporting contribution
  • Critical reviewer concerns
  • Data / compute / timeline constraints
  • Which frontier primitive is central, if any
  • If these files do not exist, derive the same information from the user's prompt.

    Phase 1: Freeze the Paper Claims

    Before proposing experiments, write down the claims that must be defended.

    Use this structure:

    • Primary claim: the main mechanism-level contribution
    • Supporting claim: optional, only if it directly strengthens the main paper story
    • Anti-claim to rule out: e.g. "the gain only comes from more parameters," "the gain only comes from a larger search space," or "the modern component is just decoration"
    • Minimum convincing evidence: what would make each claim believable to a strong reviewer?

    Do not exceed MAX_PRIMARY_CLAIMS unless the paper truly has multiple inseparable claims.

    Phase 2: Build the Experimental Storyline

    Design the paper around a compact set of experiment blocks. Default to the following blocks and delete any that are not needed:

    1. Main anchor result — does the method solve the actual bottleneck?
    2. Novelty isolation — does the dominant contribution itself matter?
    3. Simplicity / elegance check — can a bigger or more fragmented version be avoided?
    4. Frontier necessity check — if an LLM / VLM / Diffusion / RL-era component is central, is it actually the right tool?
    5. Failure analysis or qualitative diagnosis — what does the method still miss?

    For each block, decide whether it belongs in:

    • Main paper — essential to defend the core claims
    • Appendix — useful but non-blocking
    • Cut — interesting, but not worth the paper budget

    Prefer one strong baseline family over many weak baselines. If a stronger modern baseline exists, use it instead of padding the list.

    Phase 3: Specify Each Experiment Block

    For every kept block, fully specify:

    • Claim tested
    • Why this block exists
    • Dataset / split / task
    • Compared systems: strongest baselines, ablations, and variants only
    • Metrics: decisive metrics first, secondary metrics second
    • Setup details: backbone, frozen vs trainable parts, key hyperparameters, training budget, seeds
    • Success criterion: what outcome would count as convincing evidence?
    • Failure interpretation: if the result is negative, what does it mean?
    • Table / figure target: where this result should appear in the paper

    Special rules:

    • A simplicity check should usually compare the final method against either an overbuilt variant or a tempting extra component that the paper intentionally rejects.
    • A frontier necessity check should usually compare the chosen modern primitive against the strongest plausible simpler or older alternative.
    • If the proposal is intentionally non-frontier, say so explicitly and skip the frontier block instead of forcing one.

    Phase 4: Turn the Plan Into an Execution Order

    Build a realistic run order so the user knows what to do first.

    Use this milestone structure:

    1. Sanity stage — data pipeline, metric correctness, one quick overfit or toy split
    2. Baseline stage — reproduce the strongest baseline(s)
    3. Main method stage — run the final method on the primary setting
    4. Decision stage — run the decisive ablations for novelty, simplicity, and frontier necessity
    5. Polish stage — robustness, qualitative figures, appendix extras

    For each milestone, estimate:

    • compute cost
    • expected turnaround time
    • stop / go decision gate
    • risk and mitigation

    Separate must-run from nice-to-have experiments.

    Phase 5: Write the Outputs

    Step 5.1: Write refine-logs/EXPERIMENT_PLAN.md

    Use this structure:

    # Experiment Plan
    
    **Problem**: [problem]
    **Method Thesis**: [one-sentence thesis]
    **Date**: [today]
    
    ## Claim Map
    | Claim | Why It Matters | Minimum Convincing Evidence | Linked Blocks |
    |-------|-----------------|-----------------------------|---------------|
    | C1    | ...             | ...                         | B1, B2        |
    
    ## Paper Storyline
    - Main paper must prove:
    - Appendix can support:
    - Experiments intentionally cut:
    
    ## Experiment Blocks
    
    ### Block 1: [Name]
    - Claim tested:
    - Why this block exists:
    - Dataset / split / task:
    - Compared systems:
    - Metrics:
    - Setup details:
    - Success criterion:
    - Failure interpretation:
    - Table / figure target:
    - Priority: MUST-RUN / NICE-TO-HAVE
    
    ### Block 2: [Name]
    ...
    
    ## Run Order and Milestones
    | Milestone | Goal | Runs | Decision Gate | Cost | Risk |
    |-----------|------|------|---------------|------|------|
    | M0        | ...  | ...  | ...           | ...  | ...  |
    
    ## Compute and Data Budget
    - Total estimated GPU-hours:
    - Data preparation needs:
    - Human evaluation needs:
    - Biggest bottleneck:
    
    ## Risks and Mitigations
    - [Risk]:
    - [Mitigation]:
    
    ## Final Checklist
    - [ ] Main paper tables are covered
    - [ ] Novelty is isolated
    - [ ] Simplicity is defended
    - [ ] Frontier contribution is justified or explicitly not claimed
    - [ ] Nice-to-have runs are separated from must-run runs
    

    Step 5.2: Write refine-logs/EXPERIMENT_TRACKER.md

    Use this structure:

    # Experiment Tracker
    
    | Run ID | Milestone | Purpose | System / Variant | Split | Metrics | Priority | Status | Notes |
    |--------|-----------|---------|------------------|-------|---------|----------|--------|-------|
    | R001   | M0        | sanity  | ...              | ...   | ...     | MUST     | TODO   | ...   |
    

    Keep the tracker compact and execution-oriented.

    Step 5.3: Present a Brief Summary to the User

    Experiment plan ready.
    
    Must-run blocks:
    - [Block 1]
    - [Block 2]
    
    Highest-risk assumption:
    - [risk]
    
    First three runs to launch:
    1. [run]
    2. [run]
    3. [run]
    
    Plan file: refine-logs/EXPERIMENT_PLAN.md
    Tracker file: refine-logs/EXPERIMENT_TRACKER.md
    

    Key Rules

    • Large file handling: If the Write tool fails due to file size, immediately retry using Bash (cat << 'EOF' > file) to write in chunks. Do NOT ask the user for permission — just do it silently.

    • Every experiment must defend a claim. If it does not change a reviewer belief, cut it.

    • Prefer a compact paper story. Design the main table first, then add only the ablations that defend it.

    • Defend simplicity explicitly. If complexity is a concern, include a deletion study or a stronger-but-bloated variant comparison.

    • Defend frontier choices explicitly. If a modern primitive is central, prove why it is better than the strongest simpler alternative.

    • Prefer strong baselines over long baseline lists. A short, credible comparison set is better than a padded one.

    • Separate must-run from nice-to-have. Do not let appendix ideas delay the core paper evidence.

    • Reuse proposal constraints. Do not invent unrealistic budgets or data assumptions.

    • Do not fabricate results. Plan evidence; do not claim evidence.

    Composing with Other Skills

    /research-refine-pipeline -> one-shot method + experiment planning
    /research-refine   -> method and claim refinement
    /experiment-plan   -> detailed experiment roadmap
    /run-experiment    -> execute the runs
    /auto-review-loop  -> react to results and iterate on the paper
    

    Related skills

    r-reproducibility-guideAnswering Research QuestionsBuilding Paper Screening RubricsChina-CF-StudyCleaning Up Research Sessions